Coastal B.C. Braces for Warmer, Wetter Fall Forecast

Environment Canada has forecast a fall season that is expected to be warmer and wetter than usual for coastal British Columbia. Meteorologist Matt Loney shared these insights with the Victoria News, highlighting the “above normal probabilities” for both temperature and precipitation across the province’s south coast.

The predictions for temperature are considered more reliable than those for precipitation. Loney explained that while precipitation forecasts can be notoriously unpredictable, the warmer temperatures are backed by strong verification statistics. He stated, “For precipitation, generally speaking, it’s notoriously difficult to forecast,” emphasizing the challenges meteorologists face in this area.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding rainfall predictions, Loney’s confidence stems from the current conditions of the Pacific Ocean. He noted that the ocean’s surface is “incredibly warm,” which contributes to an increased capacity for weather systems to absorb moisture. This additional moisture, referred to as “moisture flux,” indicates a heightened likelihood of above-normal rainfall when storms do occur.

While the frequency of storms may not change, Loney clarified that existing storms could bring significantly more rain than usual. As the season progresses, the second week of September has been notably drier than normal, a trend that is expected to continue into the final week of the month.

Looking ahead, October is anticipated to shift towards a “signature” wet pattern, although the mid-month period may experience drier conditions with normal temperatures. The arrival of the fall equinox and the first day of autumn on September 22, 2023, marks the beginning of this transition.

Residents and businesses in coastal B.C. should prepare for a fall characterized by elevated temperatures and increased rainfall, as these weather patterns could have implications for local ecosystems and community activities. The forecast serves as a reminder of the changing climate and its potential impact on daily life in the region.

With these expectations in mind, the coastal communities will be keeping a close watch on how the weather unfolds in the coming months.