New Tool Reveals Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Ontario Cities

A new interactive tool developed by researchers at the University of Toronto is providing critical insights into how U.S. tariffs could affect specific towns and cities across Ontario. The research, launched by the School of Cities, focuses on the potential economic fallout from tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian products.

This initiative aims to deliver a granular analysis of the effects on jobs, businesses, and residents in various metropolitan areas. The tool utilizes data from Statistics Canada and additional sources, enabling users to explore the specific impacts of U.S. tariffs across different sectors in Canadian cities.

Widespread Impacts Across Ontario

Dr. Tara Vinodrai, a professor at the Institute for Management and Innovation at the University of Toronto, led the research alongside Professor Karen Chapple, the director of the School of Cities. Vinodrai emphasized the importance of making this information accessible to policymakers, politicians, and the general public. “The city is where people lead their everyday life. It’s where they work and play, and experience their day-to-day activities,” she explained.

The research findings reveal that few areas in Ontario would be insulated from the potential adverse effects of tariffs. According to the interactive map, three out of the top five localities most likely to be impacted are in Ontario. Windsor has the highest percentage of workers affected, at 16.4 percent, followed by Guelph at 15.5 percent and Greater Sudbury at 13.9 percent. Notably, the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Brantford regions also rank among the top ten locations in Canada where residents could face significant impacts.

The largest cities in Canada, including Toronto, are home to the highest number of workers likely to be affected by these tariffs, with nearly 250,000 individuals in Toronto alone. Other significant cities include Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton, with additional Ontario cities such as Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau also appearing in the top ten list.

Focus on Auto and Related Sectors

The tool further allows users to examine the number of jobs and businesses that would be affected across different industries. Vinodrai highlighted that the most visible impacts are expected to arise from sectors related to the auto industry, extending to steel and aluminum.

As the research unfolds, Vinodrai hopes the tool will enhance public understanding of these economic challenges and provide valuable insights for decision-makers. “There are lessons for policymakers regarding the need to diversify,” she stated. The interactive map could also assist in identifying areas that require targeted support and interventions.

While the current research focuses on direct impacts, Vinodrai noted that indirect effects will be explored in future studies. This ongoing research underscores the necessity of understanding the full scope of how U.S. tariffs could reshape economic landscapes in Ontario and beyond.