Canada Faces Flat Population Growth Amid Immigration Shift

Canada’s population growth is projected to remain stagnant in 2026 for the second consecutive year, as noted by the federal parliamentary budget officer (PBO). This trend marks a significant departure from the record increases experienced over the past three years. The slowdown is largely attributed to a shift in immigration policies under Prime Minister Mark Carney‘s Liberal government and a declining natural growth rate, a situation experts believe is unlikely to change in the near future.

In an interview with CTVNews.ca, Michael Haan, a professor and director at the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre at Western University, highlighted the stark contrast in fertility rates. He pointed out that in the 1950s, the average fertility rate was 5.6 children per woman, whereas it has now plummeted to 1.3. Haan attributes this decline to the rising costs associated with child-rearing in today’s society, stating, “One of the reasons for that is the child that would have been raised in the 1950s was so much cheaper than the child we want to raise today.”

The PBO’s recently released report outlines the “demographic implications” of the federal Immigration Levels Plan spanning until 2028. It emphasizes that recent population growth in Canada has been primarily driven by immigration, while the natural increase—calculated as births minus deaths—has made only a minor contribution, reflecting low fertility rates and an aging population.

Statistics Canada reported earlier this year that Canada’s fertility rate hit a record low in 2024, influenced by various socioeconomic and cultural shifts. The agency noted, “Increased educational levels, greater participation in the labour market, changing social norms and the widespread use of contraception have contributed to diversifying life paths, notably in terms of childbearing.”

Economic Implications of Immigration Policy

Despite the federal government’s efforts to limit immigration levels to alleviate pressure on public services and housing, Haan remains skeptical about its impact on natural population growth. “I think it’s unlikely given how much it costs to raise kids now. I think that for the foreseeable future, our primary source of population growth, maybe our sole source of population growth, is going to be by admitting people from outside of Canada,” he explained.

To achieve a replacement-level birthrate of 2.1 children per woman, which would stabilize the population, Haan argues that Canada’s fertility rate would need to nearly double. He expressed doubt about this occurring, stating, “If you want to see population growth, you’ve got to go above 2.1 and I just don’t see it coming.”

With declining fertility rates, immigration has become a crucial element of Canada’s economic strategy. Haan emphasized that without a sufficient influx of newcomers, the economy would face increased strain. He elaborated, “What I think would have happened is we would have continued to see acute labour shortages because employers need young bodies to do the work.”

Critiques of Immigration Levels and Future Outlook

While recognizing the economic necessity of immigration, Haan also concurred with critiques of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s administration, which he described as having “supercharged our immigrant admission program.” He remarked, “I think it was just too high… you just can’t open a tap from zero to wide open right away; it was way too much.”

Looking ahead, immigration expert Andrew Griffith suggested that the government’s ongoing reduction of immigration targets towards pre-pandemic levels could allow social services to catch up with previous population growth. He stated, “That’s probably sort of the main effect in the short term; it should provide some breathing space, as well as probably also some political breathing space.”

Griffith highlighted the challenge for the federal government in achieving a balance between immigration and social services. “More moderate growth is really something that allows the society to adapt to the growth and to ensure that the quality of public services and the quality of life are good for both the people who are already here and the people who are arriving,” he noted.

Canada is not alone in confronting challenges related to natural population growth. Countries such as Switzerland, Luxembourg, Finland, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea report comparable or even lower fertility rates. This suggests that Canada may face increased competition in attracting skilled workers as other nations also grapple with declining birth rates.

Griffith concluded, “Canada may become relatively less attractive than it was before because people who we would like to immigrate here may have better opportunities in their own country or elsewhere.” He emphasized the importance of adapting to a slower growth mode while maintaining high living standards for the population.