Brandon School Division Foresees Steady Growth in Student Numbers

The Brandon School Division (BSD) is poised for significant growth over the next five years, with student enrolment projected to reach between 10,360 and 11,440 students by the year 2030. This forecast, presented to the school board, reflects two distinct models based on historical growth patterns within the division.

During a recent board meeting, BSD senior administration shared insights from research and evaluation analyst Johnny Dubois. He outlined two enrolment projection models: one that utilized data from the past five years, capturing recent trends, and another that applied a ten-year average, which Dubois described as more “typical” and less affected by fluctuations in recent years.

Currently, BSD serves just over 10,000 students. The five-year trend model predicts a continuation of accelerated growth rates, while the ten-year model suggests a more moderate increase. According to Dubois, applying these growth rates to current figures yields two distinct projections. Under the slower ten-year growth rate, enrolment would reach approximately 10,360 students by 2030. Conversely, the five-year trend could see enrolment climb to around 11,440 students.

Dubois emphasized the inherent uncertainties in projections, noting, “Importantly, every projection is wrong. A final enrolment figure falling anywhere between the two estimates would not be surprising.” He pointed out that a crucial unknown remains whether the division’s recent rapid growth reflects a lasting trend or a temporary spike.

Despite these uncertainties, both models indicate ongoing growth rather than a decline. Denis Labossiere, the secretary-treasurer, reported that BSD’s enrolment increased by 77 students, or 0.8 percent, this year, bringing the total to 10,080 students. Over the past five years, BSD has seen an increase of 1,042 students, with growth surpassing 1,300 students over the last decade.

Labossiere highlighted a notable shift in growth patterns before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, the division experienced average annual increases of about 120 students. In contrast, the five years following COVID-19 saw an average increase of 256 students annually. The ten-year average increase stands at approximately 152 students per year.

Looking ahead, BSD anticipates an enrolment of 10,214 students for the 2026–27 school year, marking an increase of 134 students, or 1.3 percent. Labossiere stated that this projection does not alter the division’s budget assumptions from the previous year.

Accurate enrolment estimates are essential for effective budgeting and staffing, according to Superintendent Mathew Gustafson. He explained, “If we overestimate the enrolment, we place extra budgetary pressures that can impact staffing ratios. If we underestimate, we may have more students than anticipated, which puts pressure on class sizes.”

Gustafson confirmed that the division currently has sufficient capacity to accommodate the projected increase of 134 students while maintaining existing staffing levels. He noted that recent enrolment numbers were influenced by several factors, including a record number of graduates leaving the system last June and lower kindergarten entry levels.

As BSD prepares for this expected growth, the focus remains on ensuring that educational standards are met while accommodating the diverse needs of an expanding student population.