Armenia Confronts Russian Disinformation Ahead of June Elections

Armenia is grappling with a surge in disinformation and hybrid attacks as it approaches parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2024. Officials have linked this wave of misinformation to external influences, particularly from Russia, amid Armenia’s ongoing efforts to pivot its foreign policy towards the West. The situation is further complicated by Armenia’s attempts to restore relations with Azerbaijan following recent conflicts over the contested Karabakh region.

The backdrop of these developments is Russia’s waning influence in the region since its invasion of Ukraine. This shift has left many former Soviet states, including Armenia, reconsidering their alliances. Despite being a formal ally of Russia, Armenia has suspended its participation in a regional security pact, alleging that Moscow failed to assist during its conflicts with Azerbaijan.

Armenia’s foreign intelligence service recently reported extensive “malign information operations by external actors,” warning that these campaigns aim to distort the electoral process. The report highlighted the circulation of false information and conspiracy theories designed to influence voters. The intelligence service noted that these activities are typically carried out by foreign state entities, although it did not specify which countries were involved.

Independent analyst Benjamin Matevosyan remarked that Russia’s dissatisfaction with Armenia is palpable, interpreting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s outreach to the West as a direct challenge to Russian interests. Gegham Vardanyan of the Media Initiatives Center emphasized that as Armenia’s relations with Russia shift, so too has the intensity of hybrid information warfare against the country.

Disinformation Campaigns and Their Impact

The intelligence report indicated that the disinformation campaigns also target peace negotiations with Azerbaijan, following a peace agreement brokered last year with mediation from U.S. President Donald Trump. Armenia has shifted its focus away from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, seeking stronger ties with the European Union and the United States. Despite this pivot, cultural and economic connections to Russia remain significant.

Vardanyan pointed out that Russian state media, including channels and outlets like Sputnik, continue to thrive in Armenia, disseminating Kremlin-friendly narratives. He reported evidence of activities by Russian-linked hacker groups, such as Fancy Bear, which have previously targeted Armenian military personnel and diplomats.

Disinformation efforts often involve the use of “clone sites,” which mimic reputable Western media outlets. One instance involved a fake French-language website falsely alleging that Paris was sending nuclear waste to Armenia. Another imitation site claimed that Pashinyan purchased a luxury mansion in France. Vardanyan noted that these campaigns consistently promote a singular message: that cooperation with the West poses risks for Armenia.

Government Response and Ongoing Challenges

The growing disinformation crisis has elicited strong reactions from Armenian officials. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan highlighted the creativity and resourcefulness of these “enemies of freedom,” emphasizing their readiness to invest heavily in propaganda efforts. He acknowledged the difficult balance between safeguarding press freedom and addressing the threat from malign actors, indicating that such challenges are likely to escalate as the election date approaches.

While Russia is often cited as a primary source of disinformation, Vardanyan indicated that Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey are also contributing to the information warfare. In response to these threats, the European Union has allocated €15 million (approximately $17.7 million) to assist Armenia in countering disinformation efforts. Nonetheless, media expert Samvel Martirosyan cautioned that external support might be co-opted by disinformation actors, complicating the situation further.

Armenia currently finds itself navigating a complex landscape of hybrid warfare, made even more challenging by internal dynamics that can inadvertently support these disinformation campaigns. As the parliamentary elections draw closer, the stakes are high for Armenia as it seeks to maintain its sovereignty and democratic integrity in the face of external pressures.