Quebec Grocery Prices Set to Rise by Nearly $1,000 in 2026

Quebec residents should prepare for a significant increase in grocery bills in 2026. The latest findings from Canada’s Food Price Report 2026, published by researchers at Dalhousie University, indicate food prices across the nation are projected to rise between 4% and 6%. For an average family of four, this translates to an annual grocery expenditure soaring from $16,577 in 2025 to $17,572 in 2026—an increase of nearly $1,000.

Breakdown of Price Increases

Certain grocery categories are expected to bear the brunt of these price hikes. The report forecasts that meat prices will experience the most considerable surge, with increases ranging from 5% to 7%. Vegetables are anticipated to rise by 3% to 5%, while restaurant meals might see a rise of 4% to 6%. Dairy and eggs, as well as bakery products, are projected to increase by 2% to 4%. In contrast, fruit prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with increases of only 1% to 3%.

The anticipated rise in poultry prices is particularly noteworthy. After a year of shifting consumption patterns, where many turned from beef to chicken for cost savings, consumers may find chicken increasingly unaffordable. The report cites historically low production levels in 2025, compounded by a rise in avian flu cases affecting commercial flocks, as key factors driving up costs.

Factors Contributing to Rising Costs

Several interconnected factors are responsible for the anticipated surge in grocery bills. Ongoing trade tensions with the United States have placed additional pressure on import and export costs. Canadian exports to the US saw a marked decline of 7.5% in the second quarter of 2025, the most significant drop since the recession of 2008.

Extreme weather has also significantly impacted agricultural output. By June 2025, approximately 66% of Canadian agricultural land was experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. Additionally, devastating wildfires burned over 8.3 million hectares by September, further straining production capacities.

The weakened Canadian dollar has exacerbated the situation, making imported products more expensive. Changes within the food manufacturing sector have compounded these challenges, as prominent companies like Kraft-Heinz and Dr. Pepper Kellogg have undertaken downsizing measures throughout 2025.

The cumulative impact of these factors has led to food prices rising by 27% compared to five years ago. Alarmingly, one in four Canadian households is now considered food insecure, with nearly 2.2 million individuals relying on food banks each month in 2025.

As 2026 approaches, it appears that Quebec families will face difficult decisions regarding their grocery budgets. With projected increases in food prices and ongoing production challenges, consumers may need to rethink their shopping strategies to mitigate the financial burden.