Arab-Israel Relations Strained Following Qatar Airstrike

Tensions in Middle Eastern diplomacy have escalated significantly following Israel’s recent airstrike on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar. This military action has further strained relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors, particularly affecting the normalization efforts initiated under the 2020 US-brokered Abraham Accords. The attack, which took place earlier this month, has drawn condemnation from influential Gulf states and raised questions about the future of Israeli normalization with these nations.

In August 2023, Israel’s then-Energy Minister, Israel Katz, visited the Abrahamic Family House in the United Arab Emirates, symbolizing a warming of relations between Israel and the UAE. However, the deadly assault by Hamas on October 7 has dramatically altered the landscape. Following this event, Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza, leading to a cooling of diplomatic ties. Since then, Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed, the President of the UAE, has not met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in any formal capacity, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, has also shifted its stance. In the weeks preceding the October attack, he expressed willingness to meet with Netanyahu to discuss a potential normalization deal with the US. Yet, since the conflict escalated, the Saudis have frequently condemned Israeli actions, labeling them as genocidal.

The first five years following the Abraham Accords, which were heralded as a significant diplomatic achievement during Donald Trump’s presidency, have now seen Israel alienate many of its Arab allies. Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state in the Biden administration, noted that the public sentiment towards normalization in the region has soured. She commented, “Two years of this has incinerated the tender shoots of public sentiment in some places that were at least amenable to their leadership’s move toward normalization.”

With the recent airstrikes, the Gulf Cooperation Council convened urgent meetings to assess the threat posed by Israel, a response reminiscent of previous discussions about Iran’s influence in the region. There is a growing narrative that Israel may now be perceived as a greater threat to regional stability than Iran itself. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan remarked that Israel’s expansionist policies pose significant threats not just to Palestinians but to neighboring Arab states as well.

The military actions taken by Israel, including strikes on targets in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran, have led to heightened apprehension among countries that have previously maintained peace agreements with Israel. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, during a recent summit in Doha, expressed concern that Israel’s actions obstruct any prospects for future peace agreements, stating that they could “abort existing” treaties.

Both Egypt and Qatar are currently mediating efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict in Gaza. An Egyptian official indicated that should the situation lead to a large-scale displacement of Palestinians into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, a reevaluation of their peace treaty with Israel may be on the table. Jordan, which signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1994, is also expressing concern over Israel’s intentions regarding the West Bank.

The broader implications of Israel’s military actions have not only dampened enthusiasm for normalization but may also compel regional governments to consider punitive measures against Israel. The final communique from the Doha summit urged Muslim nations to contemplate sanctions against Israel and even the severing of diplomatic ties.

Israeli and US officials, however, remain optimistic about the future of the Abraham Accords. A spokesperson for the State Department stated they believe they can navigate the current criticism and view the situation as a temporary disruption. A White House spokeswoman echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the ongoing conflict might present a new opportunity for peace.

Despite this optimism, many analysts argue that the events of October 7 and the subsequent military response have undermined the foundational goals of the Abraham Accords. Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, remarked that the UAE’s involvement in the Accords was an attempt to shift regional narratives away from conflict.

As the situation continues to evolve, the UAE and other Gulf states are maintaining a cautious stance. Officials have indicated that while they remain committed to the Accords, any further Israeli annexation of West Bank territories would be deemed a “red line.” A senior UAE official recently acknowledged that the Accords are “under enormous strain” and that all options are being considered in response to Israeli actions that threaten to undermine the progress made toward regional integration and peace.

In conclusion, the dynamics of Arab-Israeli relations are undergoing significant challenges as military actions and political rhetoric intensify. The prospects for normalization appear increasingly uncertain, and the region is left to grapple with the implications of Israel’s military strategy and its impact on longstanding diplomatic agreements.