Life Expectancy in Canada Rises to 81.7 Years, Experts Cautious

Recent data from Statistics Canada indicates that life expectancy in Canada has experienced a slight increase, rising from 81.3 years in 2022 to 81.7 years in 2023. This marks the first upward trend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, experts caution that the future trajectory of life expectancy may not reflect a return to the steady gains observed in previous decades.

Doug Norris, senior vice president and chief demographer at Environics Analytics, expressed skepticism about the sustainability of this rebound. In an interview with CTVNews.ca, he stated, “I think when we get the data from 2024, 2025, we’ll be back to where we were before COVID, maybe a little bit higher. But the increases we’ll see going forward, I think, are going to be a lot less than we saw 10 and 20 years ago.”

The increase in life expectancy is influenced by various factors, including a decline in overall deaths and a shift in the age distribution of deaths. According to Statistics Canada, a rebound in life expectancy typically occurs when fewer deaths happen, particularly among older populations.

While the pandemic’s impact on life expectancy is well-documented, Norris highlights another pressing issue: the opioid crisis. “COVID is the factor I think most people would point to when you say the life expectancy has declined,” he noted. “There’s another really important factor that actually started to kick in well before COVID, and that’s the whole issue of deaths due to the opioid crisis and what they call accidental deaths due to drugs.”

In 2023, Canada reported a staggering 7,162 accidental drug poisoning deaths, the highest number recorded to date. This figure surpasses the previous highs observed during the pandemic, reflecting the ongoing toll of the opioid epidemic on national health.

Norris also addressed concerns about the rising prevalence of medical assistance in dying (MAID), which now accounts for approximately one in twenty deaths across Canada. He believes that, at this stage, the effect of MAID on overall life expectancy remains minimal. “My own view is that it wouldn’t be a major factor yet,” he stated, adding that while it might slightly reduce life expectancy, it pales in comparison to the impacts of COVID-19 and the opioid crisis.

Various chronic conditions linked to lifestyle choices, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and inactivity, are also shaping Canada’s health landscape. Norris pointed out that obesity rates have been on the rise and that environmental factors are beginning to have a noticeable impact. He warned that these elements could contribute to a deceleration in life expectancy gains moving forward.

“The benefits of past medical breakthroughs may also be levelling off,” Norris remarked, suggesting that innovations in healthcare may not yield the same dramatic increases in longevity as they have in the past.

Despite these cautions, there are signs of cautious optimism. COVID-19 deaths dropped significantly in 2023, decreasing by 60 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the gender gap in life expectancy has gradually narrowed, contributing to a more equitable health landscape.

Overall, while Norris anticipates a slow upward trend in life expectancy, he emphasizes a lack of momentum that Canadians have come to expect. “Where we would like it to be is we’d like to see increases year over year,” he said. “But there’s no guarantee.”