Brandon School Division Reports Significant Rise in Student Mobility

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has experienced a notable increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year, with net enrolment growing significantly compared to the previous year. According to Superintendent Mathew Gustafson, the division recorded an overall increase of 324 students as of September 30, 2023, followed by an additional 201 students moving into the system in the subsequent four months.

Gustafson shared these findings with the BSD board, highlighting that the cumulative net mobility for the current academic year was 55 students higher than in 2023-24. This trend indicates a sustained upward trajectory in enrolment figures. Gustafson stated, “By looking at mobility month by month, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always happen in September.”

The analysis revealed that significant increases in student numbers often occur in October, during the semester change in January or February, and again in April or May. This detailed examination enables BSD to better understand when students are most likely to transfer, allowing for more accurate predictions regarding future enrolment. Such insights are especially pertinent as the division sets its annual budget in March, prior to many of these mobility changes taking place.

During the 2024-25 academic year, BSD documented 1,110 instances of students transferring into new schools and 783 instances of students transferring out. Although these trends align with previous years, BSD is actively investigating the reasons behind the peaks in mobility, particularly in spring. Gustafson indicated that various factors contribute to these shifts, with immigration being a primary driver as families relocate to Brandon from other regions and countries.

“Housing also plays a significant role, as families renting or purchasing new homes often trigger moves within the city’s schools,” Gustafson explained. He noted that families often delay moves until the completion of their school year, which may explain the surge in enrolment observed in April and May for those arriving from countries with different academic calendars.

To enhance its forecasting capabilities, BSD is now incorporating housing development data into its enrolment projections. Gustafson elaborated, “By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add.” This modelling has already influenced administrative decisions, such as the recent changes in the Braecrest catchment area. Projections suggested a shift in growth from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School, with early indications confirming the accuracy of these forecasts, as approximately 50 students have already utilized the new bus route to George Fitton.

The implications of this continued growth are significant for BSD. As provincial funding is directly linked to student enrolment numbers, Gustafson anticipates an increase in funding next year. However, he cautioned that this funding will not fully cover the additional costs incurred by the growing student population. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” he said, noting that local levies and property assessments will help bridge the financial gap.

Gustafson emphasized the importance of the division’s expanding data set, now entering its third year, in future planning efforts. “With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he stated. This data will empower BSD to effectively plan for staffing, facility space, and budgets that align with actual trends in student enrolment.

As the Brandon School Division continues to adapt to these changes, its proactive approach to tracking student mobility will play a pivotal role in shaping the educational landscape for the community.