Brandon School Division Reports Increased Student Mobility for 2024-25

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has reported a notable increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year. The division’s net enrolment growth exceeded that of the previous school year, with a recorded increase of 324 students following September 30, and an additional 201 students in the subsequent four months.

In an effort to better understand student movement, BSD has implemented a monthly tracking system. According to Mathew Gustafson, Superintendent of the Brandon School Division, this method has revealed significant trends that could influence future staffing and budget decisions. Gustafson indicated that the cumulative net mobility for the 2024-25 year was 55 students higher than in 2023-24, suggesting an ongoing upward trajectory in enrolment.

Tracking Student Movement for Better Planning

Gustafson noted that the largest increases in student enrolment do not always occur in September, traditionally seen as the peak month for school admissions. Instead, BSD has identified significant growth during October, at semester changes in January or February, and again in April or May. This month-by-month analysis provides administrators with vital insights into when students are most likely to join or leave the school system.

The data revealed 1,110 instances of students transferring into a new school during the 2024-25 year, alongside 783 instances of students transferring out. While these trends align with previous years, BSD is actively seeking to understand the reasons behind peak mobility periods, particularly in the spring months.

Gustafson highlighted several factors contributing to this mobility. Immigration remains a significant driver, with families relocating to Brandon from within Manitoba as well as other provinces and countries. The housing market also plays a crucial role, as families moving into new rental or purchased homes often necessitate school transfers.

“Where families may be renting and then have an opportunity to move or buy, that can be a major driver,” Gustafson stated. He further explained that families often prefer to wait until their children’s academic year concludes before making a move, which may explain the influx of new students in April and May, particularly from countries with different school calendars.

Data-Driven Forecasting for Future Growth

The Brandon School Division is now integrating housing development data into its enrolment forecasting. By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, BSD can estimate how many additional students each new development may bring. This data-driven approach has recently influenced decisions regarding school boundaries, such as the Braecrest catchment change, which redirected projected growth from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School. Early indications suggest that these projections were accurate, as approximately 50 students have already begun using the new bus route to George Fitton.

Gustafson acknowledged that the division’s continued enrolment growth will have financial implications. Since provincial funding is directly tied to the number of students, BSD anticipates an increase in funding next year; however, this amount may not fully cover the related costs. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” Gustafson noted, adding that local levies and property assessments will help bridge the gap.

As BSD enters its third year of comprehensive data collection, Gustafson emphasized the importance of this growing dataset for future planning. “With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he explained. “It gives us more confidence to plan staffing, space, and budgets that reflect what’s actually happening in our schools.”

The ongoing analysis of student mobility trends will be essential as the Brandon School Division navigates its evolving landscape and seeks to adapt to the needs of its student population.