International Travel to the U.S. Faces Prolonged Decline, Experts Warn

The U.S. is experiencing a significant downturn in international travel, a trend that analysts predict may last well beyond the summer months. This decline is highlighted by the challenges faced by cities like Buffalo, New York, which once thrived on Canadian tourism. Despite promotional efforts, including a campaign that offered a $500 gift card giveaway under the slogan “Buffalo Loves Canada,” the anticipated influx of Canadian visitors has failed to materialize.

Patrick Kaler, CEO of Visit Buffalo Niagara, noted that more than 1,000 individuals entered the giveaway, suggesting initial interest. However, by late July, it became evident that the expected summer wave of tourists from Canada was absent. “To see the traffic drop off so significantly, especially because of rhetoric that can be changed, is so disheartening,” Kaler remarked.

This issue appears to stem from broader trends affecting international tourism to the United States. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the U.S. is projected to be the only country among 184 surveyed where foreign visitor spending will decline in 2025. Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO, described this finding as a “clear indicator that the global appeal of the U.S. is slipping.”

Travel Forecasts and Political Climate

Research from Tourism Economics predicts that international arrivals to the U.S. will drop by 8.2% in 2025. This figure represents a slight improvement from earlier forecasts of a 9.4% decline but still indicates a significant drop compared to pre-pandemic levels. The firm emphasized that the negative sentiment surrounding U.S. travel has proven severe, with airline bookings reflecting a sharp slowdown in inbound travel during recent months.

Deborah Friedland, managing director at the Eisner Advisory Group, pointed to multiple factors contributing to this downturn, including rising travel costs and ongoing political uncertainty. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has reinstated some of the hard-line policies from his first term, which include a travel ban targeting predominantly African and Middle Eastern countries and stricter visa approval processes. These measures have created an impression that the U.S. is unwelcoming to foreign visitors.

The perception of hostility has even affected cultural events. Organizers of an international swing dancing competition in Harlem recently postponed their event, originally scheduled for this month, due to concerns about the unwelcoming atmosphere. Tena Morales, co-producer of the competition, stated that many international competitors withdrew from participating, citing feelings of unwelcome.

Impact on Tourism and Visitor Statistics

In Washington, D.C., the local tourism industry is also feeling the impact. Officials project a 5.1% drop in international visitors for the year. In response, Destination DC announced a campaign to highlight the city’s positives and counteract negative rhetoric about the U.S. The preliminary data from the National Travel and Tourism Office confirms an overall decline of more than 3 million overseas visitors in the first seven months of this year, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous year.

The drop-off in tourism is particularly pronounced among travelers from Western Europe, Asia, and Africa. Visitors from Denmark decreased by 19%, while arrivals from Germany and France fell by 10% and 6.6%, respectively. Similarly, significant declines were noted from Asian countries, including double-digit drops in arrivals from Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Despite these declines, some areas within the U.S. have reported strong tourism performances. In Door County, Wisconsin, local businesses experienced a surge in foot traffic, attributed to loyal Midwest visitors. Jon Jarosh, a spokesperson for Destination Door County, reported a noticeable uptick in summer activity, with packed restaurants and bustling sidewalks.

As the summer concludes, the absence of Canadian tourists remains evident in Buffalo. Last year, Canada sent over 20.2 million visitors to the U.S., more than any other country. This year, however, Canadian residents have been less willing to make the trip. Notably, more U.S. residents traveled to Canada in June and July than Canadians returning to the U.S. This marks the first occurrence of this trend in nearly two decades, except for a few months during the pandemic.

Statistics Canada reported a 37% decline in the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by car in July, with a 26% fall in return trips by air. In response, Visit Buffalo Niagara has shifted its marketing focus to cities like Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago, aiming to attract a broader audience.

Kaler expressed hope for the return of Canadian visitors, emphasizing their importance beyond mere economic transactions. “We will always welcome Canadians back when the time is right,” he stated. “They mean more to us than just dollar signs or transactions at our cash registers.”

As the tourism landscape evolves, the U.S. faces the challenge of restoring its appeal to international visitors while navigating a complex political and economic environment.